Modelling the population size time series of a marsupial by means of a logistic-type map.

by Edgardo Brigatti (Universidade Federal de Rio de Janeiro)

Monday 12 Dec 2016, 16:00 → 17:00 Europe/Rome

Aula Conversi (Dip. di Fisica - Edificio G. Marconi)

We study the population size time series of a Neotropical small mammal with the intent of detecting and modelling population regulation processes eventually generated by density-dependent factors and their possible delayed effects. As is common for series of higher and long-lived taxa, empirically obtained time series often fail to represent a sufficiently long time interval and the application of analysis tools based on principles of statistical generality is not the best practice for obtaining clear results. For this reason, we detect the principal temporal structures on the bases of different correlation measures, and from these results we build an ad-hoc minimalist autoregressive model that incorporates the main drivers of the dynamics. Surprisingly our model is capable of reproducing very well the time patterns of the empirical series and, for the first time, clearly outlines the importance of the time of attaining sexual maturity as a central temporal scale for the dynamics of this species. In fact, an important advantage of this analysis scheme is that the model parame- ters are directly biologically interpretable, allowing a consistency check between model outputs and independent measurements.